Elo-style ratings blended with recruiting talent, updated as games are played. No polls, no ballots.
Current #1
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Top 25
Ranked by current Elo rating. Click a team to see its rating across the season.
Win probabilities
Rating trajectory
Pick any FBS team to see how its rating moved week to week.
Select a team above to see its rating trajectory.
Does this actually work?
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Prediction accuracy
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vs. "home team always wins"
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vs. SP+ ratings
Backtested using only data available before each game was played — no look-ahead. Recomputed automatically every week.
When we say 70%, does it happen 70% of the time?
Every FBS-vs-FBS game since 2019, grouped by how confident the model was in its favorite. If the probabilities are honest, the two bars in each group match.